Regional modelling of domestic energy consumption using stakeholder generated visions as scenarios

UK Government Carbon emission reduction targets require large scale retrofitting of the built environment. Visions of a city region in 2050 have been developed through an in-depth participatory back-casting and foresight process. This paper will explore the modelling techniques required to simulate the necessary changes to achieve the retrofitting targets for dwellings. All of the visions achieve the 80% reductions required, using different pathways. Building on earlier work based on “Bottom Up” urban scale modelling, this paper will describe the modelling of large areas using extensive data sources on the existing stock. Together with the scenario work, this research builds modelling of societal changes including population and household size, with domestic energy demand. The paper discusses the methods used and the sources of the data required to model these population and household changes. The results generated from the model show the retrofit pathways from 1990, through present day emissions, to the required levels to achieve the targets set for 2050. In addition, the outcomes of the research are visualised through mapping of the pathways across a City region

Energy modelling of regions using stakeholder generated visions as scenarios

To achieve the UK Government Carbon Emissions targets, large scale retrofitting of the built environment is required. This paper will explore the changes required to achieve the retrofitting targets for dwellings based on visions of the character of the Cardiff City region in 2050. The three visions of a utopian future: i) Connected Cardiff; ii) Compact Cardiff–Wilderness Valleys; iii) Orchard Cardiff City-Region represent scenarios with different societal and land use changes. They all achieve the 80% reductions required, but have different pathways to this goal. Building on earlier work based on “Bottom Up” urban scale model EEP, this paper will outline the modelling of large areas using extensive data sources that describe the existing stock. Together with the scenario work, this research models societal changes represented by population and household size change and the associated energy use. The paper discusses data sources required and methods to model population and household changes. The results generated from the model show the retrofit pathways required to achieve the targets set. In addition the outcomes of the research are visualised through mapping of the pathways across the Cardiff City region